Math Time

Guess I am not finding too much time to post except for some hand histories... This was a first for me... Wish It was my hand though.

Flop (board: Qh Ah Jh):

S1me0n checks. shadow39000 goes all-in for 695.
S1me0n calls.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

shadow39000 shows 9d 9c.
S1me0n shows Kh Th.

The odds of holding 2 cards that can possibly be used to make a royal flush?
20/52 * 4/51 = 3% or 1 out of 33

The odds of flopping a royal flush when you are holding 2 of them?
3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = .005% or 1 out of 2 million.

How many more hands before I flop my royal flush?
66 million? Maybe less. Maybe more.

The odds of getting a royal flush by the river I think are 1/660,000 so I guess it is 100x more difficult to flop one with your 2 hole cards versus getting one by the river with 0, 1, or 2 of your hole cards. If anyone wants to double check this math... you are a bigger dork than I am.

Just plain sick

Hand #34183744-112 at Thu1021pm-007 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 11/Aug/06 00:04:50

jejiii3 is at seat 0 with 29510.
JumbleMonger is at seat 1 with 73460.
AABullit is at seat 2 with 102520.
leboeufw is at seat 3 with 73185.
LikeThe8 is at seat 4 with 110335.
CigaroCigaro is at seat 5 with 37300.
SlopE2nd is at seat 6 with 21285.
Picola76 is at seat 7 with 11490.
betopoker is at seat 8 with 50745.
The button is at seat 2.

jejiii3 posts ante (300).
JumbleMonger posts ante (300).
AABullit posts ante (300).
leboeufw posts ante (300).
LikeThe8 posts ante (300).
CigaroCigaro posts ante (300).
SlopE2nd posts ante (300).
Picola76 posts ante (300).
betopoker posts ante (300).
LikeThe8 posts the small blind of 1500.
CigaroCigaro posts the big blind of 3000.

jejiii3: -- --
JumbleMonger: -- --
AABullit: -- --
leboeufw: -- --
LikeThe8: -- --
CigaroCigaro: 8c 9d
SlopE2nd: -- --
Picola76: -- --
betopoker: -- --

Pre-flop:

SlopE2nd folds. Picola76 folds. betopoker folds.
jejiii3 calls. JumbleMonger folds. AABullit folds.
leboeufw folds. LikeThe8 calls. CigaroCigaro
checks.

Flop (board: 9s 8h 3h):

LikeThe8 bets 3000. CigaroCigaro raises to 12000.
jejiii3 folds. LikeThe8 re-raises to 68000.
CigaroCigaro goes all-in for 34000. LikeThe8 is
returned 34000 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

LikeThe8 shows 8d 9h.
CigaroCigaro shows 8c 9d.


Turn (board: 9s 8h 3h 2h):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 9s 8h 3h 2h 7h):

(no action in this round)



Showdown:

LikeThe8 has 9h 8h 3h 2h 7h: flush, nine high.
CigaroCigaro has 8c 9d 9s 8h 7h: two pair, nines and eights.


Hand #34183744-112 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
LikeThe8 wins 79700 with flush, nine high.

JPP - Minimum raises make baby Jesus cry

4th/10 -$20.00

KA-BOOM! We had a little excitement before the game began when a lightbulb in Jason's poker table hanging lamp exploded. Burning hot glass shrapnel flying everywhere. Thankfully, the poker gods were watching out for us and we were all still standing in the kitchen and no one was sitting at the table. Don't let anyone fool you, poker is a dangerous game.

I busted pretty early because Drew was 2 seats to my left and I felt like he was bullying back at me when I raised him a couple of times. I got 88 on the button and raised 3-4x the BB. He made the patented Drew "All-In" move which he never expects anyone to call, but I put him on 2 big cards and decided to race him down with my 88's and try to double up or at least send a message that he couldn't all-in re-raise me at will. Turns out he did have 2 face cards but they matched, JJ so I was a big underdog. Nothing on the flop. Turn, 8. River, Jack. The classic suck-resuck.

I rebought and doubled back up to $20 fairly soon after when I cracked Jason's Aces. I was in late position again and decided to keep applying pressure so I raised to 60 with J10. Jason re-raised to 120. Russ called so I had to call another 60 to stay in a pot that was now 300. I'm getting 5 to 1 so it's an automatic call. This is why minimum raises make baby Jesus cry. They do nothing to affect your opponent's pot odds. It is an automatic call. The flop came 10-10-x. Jason bet 400, I re-raised all-in and he called. The same thing happened later in the game when Eli min-raised his pocket Kings. I had 99's and called and flopped a set. He went all-in and I called to bust him. I didn't see AA but the one time I had KK I raised it up 4x the BB and took the blinds. Sometimes you have to be happy with that. Better to win a small pot then to lose a big one.

In one painfully memorable hand I violated one of my own basic rules and it cost me a double knockout that would have made me a massive chip leader. I had 10-10 in first position with 3 players behind me. I believe the pre-flop betting was 200 so the pot was 800. The flop came J-7-6 so only one over card. My general rule is to call a reasonable amount to see the turn if there is only 1 overcard and see if I can take it down on the turn. I checked. The 3 players behind me bet and called another 200. I had to call 200 into 1400 so I was getting 7 to 1 but figured I was behind and need another 10 to take the lead in the hand which was basically a 9 to 1 shot (and I was out of position) so I folded. Something was making me very uncomfortable about the 3 players behind me, I figured somebody had an overpair or at a minimum somebody hit the J. I folded, but I didn't feel comfortable about the fold either. I flashed the red 10's to Edy on my left which I almost never do but I guess I wanted a witness to validate that I made a good fold of a decent hand. Turn. Black 10. More betting. River. Black 10. 2 All-ins with a straight and a full house maybe, I don't really remember because I was too stunned seeing my quads fall. It wasn't a horrible fold, but since I would've capped the betting with just 200 more to see the turn I think I should stick with my general "only one overcard take it to the turn" rule.

I managed to grind my way to a slight chip lead with 6 players left just by applying pressure in late position. Sometimes with cards and sometimes not. At one point I dropped the hammer (7-2 offsuit) on Drew and made 400 or so with a full house. He folded on the river but of course I had to show and brag about it for 15 minutes or so...

It all fell apart for me when I was holding Q10 in a 3-way pot with Jason and Drew. The flop came QJ10 so I flopped 2 pair. I didn't put anyone on AK, but I called something like 1500 on the flop with Drew going all-in. Jason went all-in on the turn and I had to fold. He showed the K9 straight, don't remember what Drew had. It was a very expensive hand for me and I should have been able to get away from it. That hand cost me close to half my stack and with 4 left I had a slight lead on John in 4th. He raised All-in from the button. I thought he was full of shit so I called from the SB with KJ. He had Q7 and the flop came KQx. Turn. Blank. River. Q. Nice, the second time tonight I've been two-outted on the river. (of course the first time I had two-outted on the turn to take the lead but hell, it's still no fun...) That was pretty much it for me. The blinds were 300-600 and I tried to rally but it didn't happen.

I hate 4th. I played pretty strong though and just got unlucky in a couple of spots. I think the lessons learned for tonight are 1) pick a better spot than 88 to fight back if you feel like someone is being a bully. 2) call the flop if the pot odds are close and there is only 1 overcard to your pocket pair, even if you are out of position there's a lot of opportunity to maneuver and take it down on the turn, or get lucky and hit runner-runner quads ;) and 3) flopping 2-pair but on a dangerous board with a 3-way pot is often a good time to fold.

MTT Win - Bodog $100k guaranteed semi-final

I just spent 4 hours outlasting a field of 140 other players to win a $24 tournament entry token off a $2 buy-in. It was good to make a MTT final table because I haven't in a while, but it was not an entirely productive use of my time. (My wife would question if poker is ever a "productive" use of my time.) Hopefully I can turn this $24 into a seat in the $100k finals which I haven't played in before, but I really need to put some more thought into which MTT's I want to invest the time to play. I read a good article that said you should try to play the same one on the same site every night and try to familiarize yourself with some of the regulars.

Bodog +$24 tournament entry token 

Gift to the Guido fund

I played a cash game tonight at Crazy Paul's. First off, I wasn't too thrilled about the rake. $75 buy-in, $1/$2 blinds and the rake is capped at $6. Every big pot the dealer is taking $6 off the table. In the first hour plus the dealer has already raked $75 which is not exactly what I call a friendly cash game. Crazy Paul said it was to cover the pizza and the beer, but I didn't eat your damn pizza or drink your damn beer. You can spend your rake on whatever the hell you please but it still has to be fair to the table and I think $3 should have been the cap.

Now that I've gotten that vent out of the way. I should be coming home ahead $50 or $75. Instead I'm busted and I hope I learned something. I played great all night, folding trouble hands like KJ out of position, taking almost every small and medium pot I was in and at one point finding myself at $150. Super, I'll just wait for AA or KK and fold everything else and make a little profit and go home happy. Instead, I decide to go up against this fucking Guido on a massive hot streak. He looks like Jose Canseco and his girlfriend is playing to his left with a "Got Milk" T-Shirt and an IQ of about 12. I pick up A7 out of position and decide to play. The flop comes AKK. I bet $20 to find out if he has an A or K. I'm becoming less concerned about my kicker at this point. He calls. The turn comes a J. OK, either he has a K and has me beat or my kicker doesn't play and I'm fine. I bet another $20. He smooth calls. The river comes another Jack. I've been pushing hard, making it seem like I've got the nuts and I'm not afraid so I immediately say "All In". He calls again and shows AQ. He says "You got lucky bro." and the dealer starts splitting up the chips. Then some little shit who's not even in the hand says "Wait, he's got AA and KK with Q kicker. He wins." The little shit is right. I don't like to cheat but for some reason this still pisses me off. If both the players in the hand think it's a chop and the dealer is dividing up the chips I think you should just keep your goddamn mouth shut.

Maybe after 4 or 5 beers I just get retarded. There were a lot of hands that could have beaten me but I didn't slow down to think about it. Any K or any J or AQ. He had the AQ and I paid for my stupidity. I still had $10 in my wallet so I said what the hell... If I'm going to go broke, I'm going to go broke and bought back in. I waited a few hands and raised all-in with AK and Guido called with Q7 and hit a straight to the 9. Guido's "Got Milk" girlfriend had busted Dave earlier with AA so we drove home penniless and pissed off. Ouch, that hurt. I hope I learn something from this... I'm not all that experienced in cash games and I'm sure if I play more of them I will need to learn more of this kind of lesson. Dave and I both agreed that as the night went on, we both reverted to our normal tournament style and it cost us dearly.

Tomorrow I will be 29. Yippee.
-$85.00. Dumb ass.